Prices that'll never be seen again
I was talking with someone the other day about the lack of comments on some posts and I was positing that it could be because people are using a lot more interfaces that do no show all content these days, plus of course the various games.
This will continue with SMTs in that case and what that means is that in order to have decent engagement, the interfaces themselves will have to start making sure that they are engaging. In my opinion, applications have to take the responsibility of providing experience and let go of the idea that the only way to attract people is by offering votes and tokens. This takes time in a community that has relied on votes and tokens for pretty much 3 years now.
Having said that though, votes and tokens are awesome and shouldn't be under-appreciated by anyone and I for one am grateful for all I get. I see that it is these times now that are going to be looked back at with reverence from those who were here, and jealousy from those who were not. This is always the case though and it has presented itself even within the small Steem community that is here now.
"But you were here for 6 cent Steem!"
And all of us were here for 12 cent Steem, and that is going to be a point to remember in the future, in the same way 6 cent was when the prices climbed well in to the dollars. 1 cent Bitcoin, 1 dollar bitcoin, 100 dollar bitcoin, 1000 dollar bitcoin... All points that will likely never arrive again. It is hard to predict and there is risk involved of course, but I wonder what price of Steem will never be seen again going forward?
I was talking about a buy I had in the other day after buying and then selling some STEEM:
0.00001527 was the low point after my sell. I missed my buy back as I set it 0.00000007 BTC lower. Will that buy ever go through? Should I take the loss and buy now at a price slightly higher than I sold at? All part of the fun.
BTW, looking at that chart it is likely about to reach a point where it is going to go up or down from here. Glad to be of service.
Getting back to the current tokens, given the size of community and therefore lack of competition on the pool and for attention, given that the pool itself is nearing the largest it will ever be before the inflation rate drops and it starts shrinking, and given that the rice of STEEM may be around the lowest it might ever be again, and given that the distribution has increased to those who are actually working toward and for the community - this is about the best time one can invest into STEEM and about the best time to be a content creator.
I have a feeling that going forward and especially as price increases, the potential to get this level of Steem is going to be very difficult no matter who you are, even though the price of STEEM will mean that the value achieved will be much higher than it is now.
What people forget is that regardless of the dollar value, the amount of Steem in the pool is what it is and that means that while the ^800K in there now is near valueless, that pool is relative to the price and at 1 dollar, 5 or ten it is still there in the pool for distribution, and that means that the distribution will spread as there is more competition in creation and a great deal more distribution on the curation side, as no large account will stay narrow and upvote shit as the removed value from downvotes will be massive.
But, that pool will start shrinking and then things will start happening, for example like today, ~1% of the total supply (3,486,149.081 STEEM) has been claimed by Poloniex and no one really knows what they are going to do with it. Perhaps they could buy SBD and then buy STEEM - and then burn it. That would take around 13% of the total SBD out of the marketplace and bring the debt to more manageable level. I don't suspect they are going to do that though as that would help the STEEM community, but not them. Best case is they will lock it up, but I am sure that if prices start to pump, they will dump. I do not know what the rules are though - if there are any in the crypto wild west.
The floor price for everything is of course zero, but I do not expect STEEM is going there any time soon, so I wonder about all of those people who had a buy in at 10 cents, 8 cents or less, at what point do they feel the FOMO and bite the bullet and buy. How many had a buy in for Bitcoin at 10 dollars, but weren't willing to buy it at 20? Hard to say, but in hindsight what would have been the best decision?
What is going to be the regret prices of STEEM I wonder? In ten years from now will there be people like myself (who did this with Bitcoin) who will say that instead of buying 250€ of STEEM, I went out drinking instead. For me at the current price of Bitcoin that night drinking "cost me" about 250,000 euros or something like that. OF course, I would have had to hold all the way up too - would I have?
All of investing is speculation, not knowing. If everyone knew the outcomes, there would be no value in the investment. We all make decisions on how to use the resources in our control, whether it be the financial ones, the tools at our disposal or, the skills and knowledge we hold.
[ a Steem original ]